MARKET PLANNING / UNITED STATES
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Addressable drinkers
—Estimated craft-or-cider audienceTotal territory volume
—24 × 12 oz cases / year at 100%Your annual volume target
—Your territory, by state
| State / district | Census division | Est. drinkers | Target cases / year | Target shelf value |
|---|
THE MATH, IN THE OPEN
A planning estimate.
Not a sales forecast.
2019 audience research, 2019 population weights, and your chosen shelf price. No assumed market growth.
Explore the national estimate ↗How regional research becomes a state estimate
The national health audience is 15.8 million × (2,094,000 ÷ 2,748,000) = approximately 12.04 million people. The published division health targets already account for overlap and sum to 11.6 million. We use those division totals as geographic weights and scale them proportionally to the national estimate (approximately ×1.038). This reconciliation is our modeling choice, not an additional study finding.
State health audience = national health audience × (division health target ÷ 11.6 million) × (state population ÷ division population).
State population weights use the Census Bureau’s July 1, 2019 estimates, Vintage 2019. Total resident population is an allocation proxy for the adult audience; state age profiles, local demand, and buying habits may differ. DC is included in South Atlantic; Alaska and Hawaii are included in Pacific. US territories are excluded.
From audience to cases and dollars
Addressable drinkers = estimated health audience × 38%. Annual cases = drinkers × 12 servings per month × 12 months ÷ 24. Your target cases = annual cases × penetration ÷ 100. Shelf value = target cases × entered price × 24 ÷ package size.
The model applies the study’s craft-or-cider share and drinking rate across ages and regions, as the national page does. No spouse/partner multiplier, craft-authority audience, or additional behavioral-index multiplier is included. Penetration means a share of modeled volume, not an independently measured customer conversion rate.
$14.99 per six-pack converts exactly to $59.96 per case. The article rounds this to $60. Changing package size keeps the equivalent price per serving. Results use unrounded values internally; displayed rows may not sum exactly because of rounding. Retail value does not estimate brewery receipts or profit.
Sources and limits
The audience figures come from Gluten Free Brewer’s published transcription of Target-Audience Research — MRI Summary (2019), based on MRI / Mediamark syndicated research. Original slide files were not independently inspected for this calculator.
- National market model and pricing assumptions
- Division audience findings
- Full 2019 research summary
- US Census state population estimates, Vintage 2019
- Map geometry: US Atlas / Census cartographic boundaries
The population extrapolation assumes uniform audience concentration within each division. These are historical planning inputs, not measured state markets or a current demand forecast. Validate distribution reach and actual sell-through before making investment decisions.