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Gluten-Free Beer Market Calculator: Your Territory

Pick the states you sell in, set the penetration you can defend with your account list, and put in your own shelf price. The calculator returns the addressable audience, the annual cases and the shelf value for that territory, broken out state by state. It runs the same arithmetic as our national estimate — on your footprint instead of the whole country.

A planning estimate, not a forecast. The audience inputs are measured — a 2019 target-audience research study built on MRI syndicated consumer data. The penetration and the price are yours, and penetration is the assumption that moves the answer most. No brewery captures a share because a calculator showed one: validate every input against current data before this goes in front of an investor or a board.

Run it​

If the explorer does not load, open it directly at the market calculator.

What the three inputs actually do

Your states set the audience. Each state carries a share of its census division's health-driven audience, weighted by population, so a territory of five states is not five times an average state — it is those five, at their own sizes. The division-level detail behind that is on Where the Audience Lives.

Penetration is what share of that audience you reach and keep. It is a distribution-and-trust question long before it is a brewing one: shelf placement, staff who can answer the question, and a label a celiac drinker trusts. One percent of a real territory is a serious brand; twenty percent is a stress test, not a plan.

Price is the shelf price of a six-pack, and the pack size converts it to cases. Gluten-free beer has sold at parity with the top of the craft shelf for years rather than at an average craft price, which is why the default sits where it does.

Where the numbers come from​

Every population and behaviour input traces to the same measured source as our national estimate, and the derivation — each step, each assumption, and the price research behind the default — is on How Big Is the US Gluten-Free Beer Market?

That page is the argument. This page is the arithmetic, pointed at your footprint. If a number here surprises you, the explanation is there.

What this page is not​

It is not a forecast, a category valuation, or a promise of what any brewery will sell. It is arithmetic on measured inputs and two assumptions you choose yourself. It carries no population figure the study did not measure. The study is not this site's own research.