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How Big Is the US Gluten-Free Malt Market?

At Bard's 4 lb (1.8 kg) of sorghum malt per 12-oz case, the US gluten-free beer market needs about 110 million pounds of malt a year at full penetration, and 1.1 million at 1%. The grain is there, about half of one percent of a year's US sorghum harvest. Gluten-free malting capacity is what's missing: Bard's own maltster, flat out, covered about 0.7%.

Our position​

Bard's put gluten-free beer on shelves across North America from 2004 to 2020, and when it needed sorghum malt at production scale it didn't find a supplier: it produced its own, buying raw grain and malting it under an exclusive arrangement (where to get sorghum malt). The figures on this page are that record read forward: how much malt the beer took, and what the market this site sizes would take.

The number is ours. It's arithmetic on Bard's production figures and the beer-market estimate, with the assumptions named below, and it's the number we'd plan a malthouse on.

Where the inputs come from​

  • The beer. About 27.5 million cases of twenty-four 12-oz a year at full penetration, from the beer-market estimate, built on 2019 measured consumer data.
  • The malt per case. Bard's production record, 2018–2020:
    • Craig's working rule in 2018: "1 bushel of malted sorghum equals approximately 1 barrel of beer", about 3.6 lb (1.6 kg) per case.
    • The first all-grain recipe at the contract brewery, December 2018, still being finalized: 3,750 lb (1,700 kg) of malt per 60-barrel batch, about 4.5 lb (2.0 kg) per case.
    • Craig's target for that brewery the same week: "4 lbs per 12 oz case or better (less lbs)".
    • A 42-barrel production brew in May 2020: 2,300 lb (1,043 kg) of malt, 4.0 lb (1.8 kg) per case.
  • The gravity behind it. Bard's flagship was a light golden beer. The 2014–2017 production log puts the finished beer at a median 11.2 °P, about 30 lb (13.6 kg) of extract per barrel, and the 2016 procedure specified 10.5 °P (production QA log; building Bard's).
  • The grain. Malting loses 8–19% of the grain's dry matter (Beta 1995); Bard's bought grain at 56 lb (25.4 kg) a bushel or better (what makes good malting sorghum); US growers harvested 437 million bushels of sorghum in 2025 (sorghum water and sustainability).
  • The malthouse. Bard's malting figures, 2016–2018, in the capacity section below.

The estimate, step by step​

StepFigureWhat it is
The beer market at full penetration≈ 27.5 million cases a yearAbout 2.0 million barrels, at 13.78 cases to the barrel
× Bard's malt per case× 4 lb (1.8 kg)The 2020 production figure, and Craig's target
Malt a year≈ 110 million lbAbout 55,000 tons
Grain before malting≈ 120–136 million lbMalt ÷ (1 − 8% to 19% malting loss)
As bushels≈ 2.1–2.4 million bushelsAt 56 lb a bushel
Share of the 2025 US sorghum harvest≈ 0.5%Of 437 million bushels

What a malthouse supplies is a penetration assumption, just as it is for a brewery:

Market penetrationCases a yearMalt a yearMalt a week, over 50 weeksGrain
1%≈ 275,000≈ 1.1 million lb≈ 10 metric tons≈ 21,000–24,000 bushels
5%≈ 1.4 million≈ 5.5 million lb≈ 50 metric tons≈ 107,000–121,000 bushels
10%≈ 2.75 million≈ 11 million lb≈ 100 metric tons≈ 214,000–243,000 bushels
20%≈ 5.5 million≈ 22 million lb≈ 200 metric tons≈ 427,000–485,000 bushels
100%≈ 27.5 million≈ 110 million lb≈ 1,000 metric tons≈ 2.1–2.4 million bushels

Every figure on this page is a volume at a stated penetration. Move the penetration, the malt per case or the territory, and the answer moves with it.

The grain is there. The malting is not.​

The grain side is small against the crop. Even the whole market would take about half of one percent of a single year's US sorghum harvest. At 1%, it's 21,000–24,000 bushels, just under twice the 12,500 bushels one organic grower held in Bard's sourcing record, roughly 350 tons and "far more than a small malthouse can take or store" (sourcing sorghum farmer-direct). Contract blocks of 40–60 acres per farm were typical.

The malting side is where it runs out. Malted whole-grain sorghum is "essentially unavailable" as a product in North America (where to get sorghum malt), and the malthouses that run gluten-free mostly malt millet, buckwheat and rice (malthouses that run gluten-free). Bard's own figures show the scale a supplier would need:

Bard's figureWhat it shows
Its maltster in 2018: about 7 metric tons of malted sorghum a week, about 15,400 lb (6,985 kg)Flat out, about 770,000 lb (349,000 kg) a year: about 192,500 cases at 4 lb, about 0.7% of the market
Sizing in-house malting in 2016: 15–20 tons of sorghum a weekThe scale Bard's itself planned around
A 2017 malting-system quote: batches of 2, 5 or 10 tonsThe unit a new malting line is bought in
The contract brewery's bulk intake: at most 45,000 lb (20,400 kg) a shipment, 20 palletsHow malt arrives at production scale
One super-sack: 2000 lb (907 kg), about 500 cases at 4 lbThe unit a brewery orders in

What a malthouse would need, then: about 10 metric tons of gluten-free sorghum malt a week to supply 1% of the market, about 1.4 times Bard's 2018 maltster; about 50 tons a week for 5%. Finding a contract craft maltster covers why minimum lot size is "often the deal-breaker" for a first order.

Run it for your territory​

The figures above are national. This turns them into a territory: pick the states, set the share you can supply, and it returns the malt that share asks for, the grain behind it and the delivery schedule it implies. The assumptions named below apply to every number it produces.

If the explorer does not load, open it directly at the malt market map.

The assumptions, named​

  1. 4 lb per case is a light golden lager's figure. Bard's flagship finished at 10.5–11.2 °P. A stronger beer, an IPA or a stout, takes more malt per case, so a market that leans heavier needs more than this page shows.
  2. It assumes an all-sorghum grist. Bard's flagship was 100% sorghum malt. A beer that brings part of its extract from rice, millet or syrup needs less sorghum malt and some of another input.
  3. The malt per case bakes in the brewhouse. 4 lb a case is about 55 lb (24.9 kg) a barrel. Against the 28–30 lb of extract in a barrel of Bard's beer, and malts of 68.8–76.8% extract (Hartwick 2019), that implies a brewhouse efficiency of roughly 66–79%. The early all-grain recipe ran 4.5 lb; Craig's rule of thumb, 3.6. A better brewhouse needs less malt.
  4. The grain step uses a study's malting loss. 8–19% is the range across sixteen cultivars in one laboratory study rather than a figure from Bard's own malthouse. Grain moisture and malt moisture differ too, so read the bushel figures as a range.
  5. It counts pounds. This page sizes the malt and leaves the price to you. Price your own malt from a supplier's quote: what gluten-free brewing actually costs has the worksheet.
  6. The beer market's own assumptions carry through. The population, drinking rate and overlap factor are named on the beer-market page.

What to do with it​

  • A maltster can size a line against a share of the market: about 1.1 million lb a year per point of penetration, or 10 metric tons a week. The grain to fill it is buyable, and Sorghum Seed Standard 1 says what to buy.
  • A brewer can size a malt contract from cases: planned cases × 4 lb, adjusted for a stronger beer or a different grist. Ordering sorghum malt turns it into an order.

What this page is not​

It isn't a forecast, a category valuation or a promise of what any malthouse will sell. It's a planning estimate: 2019 population inputs, Bard's 2018–2020 production figures, and assumptions this page names. Beer strength, grists and brewhouses vary, and the malt per case moves with them.

Sources​

  • Bard's production record: malt per case and per batch (2018–2020), maltster capacity (2018), malting plans (2016–2017) and bulk-malt handling (2018), from Bard's commercial correspondence; the production QA log 2014–2017.
  • How Big Is the US Gluten-Free Beer Market? for the case volume and its sources.
  • Beta, T., Rooney, L.W. & Waniska, R.D. (1995). Malting Characteristics of Sorghum Cultivars. Cereal Chemistry 72(6):533, for the malting-loss range.
  • USDA NASS, Crop Production 2025 Annual Summary (January 2026), via sorghum water and sustainability.